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Hi ... i am just gone through this article..and the topic is good to discuss... i have some answers for some of the questions thatr you asked in previous comments... Posted by: Mr. Maharshi Pragna At: 9, Jun 2006 6:57:59 PM IST It is true that electronic industry created jobs in IT. Even IT created jobs in electronic industry too. Every field is interlinked with each other. So, one field generates jobs in another field. So, the questions we need to ask are, (1) How many jobs has electronic industry (or for that matter any other industry) created in IT? My Ans: Yes Many IT Jobs are created by electronic industry..and still they will be there.. Example: New technologies are getting integrated to all products. Like T.V programs can be now a days viewed in Mobile phones, Camera is integrated with Mobile, Radio is integrated with Mobile, Digital Camera Pics can be connected to T.V and Viewed without any hard copies Portable Media Player (New emerging techonlogy) which supports Pic viewer, Movie Player, Various File Viewer, T. V Program Viewer all integrated in one piece like moble requires lot of mutliple technologies integrated in one piece If you see these all these above examples ....it is clear that new techonlogies will emerge and IT will grow with out any stoppage.. So to develop these products man power is required..and jobs will not drain as one might be expecting.. (2) Have these jobs in IT created by electronic (or any other) field kept growing or declining? Ans: The above explanation would give you an idea i guess.. (3) Will they continue to grow in future too? IT will grow even thoug most of the things are automated...if you consider the fact that development is only the thing that IT is then it is false..maintenance is also related to IT. So it will not grow in the pace as it is now..but it will come to some stagnant after some years.. Presnetly all the Govt Offices are getting automated...this is required bcz manual maintenance will take much time to process..for growing polulation the maintenance of manula files will be time consuming and service time will be increasing...for example if one goes to bank if it takes 15min to service manually..by checking files presently it might take less than 5 min to handle that job by computerisation.... But after 5 years the customers of that bank will be increased exponentially so manaully handling you might have to wait for 2 hrs to get your turn for servie in the same bank. Also there might be some new servies that might be getting added to bank which will require softeare professionsls...so again IT comes into picture... So would you think going computerization is good or bad?? Regards, Krishna

Posted by: Mr. Krishna Chaitanya P At: 28, Jun 2006 12:08:57 PM IST

Dear Maharshi, You said what happens to the hopes of our leaders, unemployed, I.T.employees, real estate businessmen if there is a decline in I.T& BPO sectors. 1)Leaders � I hope that you are talking about politicians. Our politicians never care about the employment situation in India. If there is more no. of unemployed, then the politicians can prepare more welfare schemes and get a share in it. See how the govt. is trying to allow FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in retail trade. If it happens it will severely affect about 12 crore people who depend on petty shops. India is called a nation of �Petty Shops�. Those who did not get jobs created employment by starting petty shops. If foreign retailers enter the Indian market, they will have such a clout on manufacturers to get the goods cheaply. So, the petty shop owners would have to close down their shops unable to compete with foreign retailers. The govt. is slow in allowing FDI in retail because of opposition from left parties. The politicians are interested only in how to benefit from their posts. They are not at all interested in employment situation in India. 2)Unemployed - They have hopes in I.T. sector only because of high salaries. 3)I.T. employees � According to sources, a recent internal HR survey within Infosys brought up some startling facts. The survey revealed that the employee satisfaction rate has dropped from 57 percent last year to around 27 percent this year. And more importantly, around 70 percent of employees said that they would like to leave the company within four years. (http://www.expresscomputeronline.com/20031222/coverstory01.shtml) 4)Real Estate Businessmen � What is happening now a days is not real estate business, but speculation only. Common people are unable to buy land for construction of own houses because of high cost of land. Land mafias are thriving and politicians are supporting them. People will only get benefit if there is a meltdown in land prices, so we need not worry about the future of real estate business.

Posted by: Mr. sree krishna koppuravuri At: 15, Jun 2006 1:02:21 PM IST

Dear Maharshi, You said that we are depending more on I.T and BPO sectors and what happens if there is any blow to this sector? In fact we should depend more on this sector because Mr. Gartner predicted that BPO market is expected to grow to $ 24 billion by 2007 of which India will earn about $13.8 billion. NASSCOM also estimates that India will earn about 18 billion in 2008. U.S. Dept. of Labour and Forrester Research Inc. estimates that the number of jobs moving offshore would be 33,20,213 by 2015 in U.S,A. India employed only 1,71,000 professionals and earned only $ 2.3 billion in 2002-2003. Unless we work hard, we can not achieve $ 18 billion target. You may say that we should not depend on I.T and BPO sectors and try to be competitive in other sectors also. This is highly difficult because of heavy competition from China. Take for e.g. Private medical colleges in India are offering M.B.B.S. course for Rs: 30,00,000/-, whereas China is offering the same for about Rs: 9,00,000/- which also includes accommodation and food. Hence there is nothing wrong in trying for more share in I.T. & BPO sectors. We should also try for other sectors, but certainly there would be a lot of wastage of money and time.

Posted by: Mr. sree krishna koppuravuri At: 15, Jun 2006 11:38:25 AM IST

Dear Maharshi, You are saying that there is a bad link between I.T & BPO sectors and real estate business. This is a wrong impression. Because you are residing in Hyderabad, you are thinking that there is a linkage between I.T and real estate. As I am in Guntur, I feel that the increase in land prices is due to the fact that after separation of Telengana, the new capital would be between Vijayawada and Guntur. So, we should see that fact that the land prices have increased in areas where even though there are no I.T. industries. The prices of lands are increasing because of circulation of more money. The money printed in the name of deficit financing is landing mainly in the hands of corrupted people like politicians, bureaucrats etc. Moreover the rate of interest on deposits is about 6% p.a. in banks while the inflation rate is more than 10% p.a. You may say that the inflation rate is only 3%-4% as per the govt. statistics, but the common people never understands how the inflation rate is like that while there is 100% increase in many items like land prices, cement, petrol, education, healthcare etc from the last 5 years. To escape the inflation people try to put the money on lands. Seeing the demand, the speculators hold large tracts of land and increase the prices recklessly. To grab the opportunity to earn more, many people are becoming speculators. By keeping the interest low on deposits than the inflation rate, the RBI has become �A Unit Manufacturing Land Speculators�. Common people who invested money in the Indian stock market, lost more money than what they gained. After inflating the prices of shares, the speculators woo the ordinary investors to purchase them. Generally the ordinary investors enter the market after they make sure that the prices are rising. But soon the market crashes and the late investor is the loser. In this way, the stock market swallowed enormous amounts of money of gullible public. The common investor is afraid to enter these speculative dens. Even here also the FII( Foreign Institutional Investors) are given undue advantage than the ordinary investor. Under the avoidance of double taxation pacts, the FIIs need not pay any tax if they are registered in Mauritius. i.e. they pay taxes as per the rules of Maritius. If there are no taxes there, then they need not pay any tax. But the ordinary Indian investor has to pay taxes as our laws. If they invest in stock market, they have to explain the sources of income to the Income Tax people. To avoid this, people invest in lands where there is a scope for putting black money. So, lack of investment opportunities is the main cause for driving the prices of lands high.

Posted by: Mr. sree krishna koppuravuri At: 14, Jun 2006 4:06:06 PM IST

Dear Maharshi, Many experts in sixties predicted that all the oil reserves in the world would be exhausted by the year 2000 even after taking into consideration the unexplored reserves. But even now we are using petroleum products. Similarly the decline of I.T. industry may not be true. It may extend by 10 to 15 more years. So, there should not be any panic right now. We know that the decline would not be sudden i.e. the growth may be 30% right now, but after some years it may come to 15% and after some years it may come to 5%. People will automatically know that the opportunities are coming down, so they can opt for some other field. After about 20 years from now we may not know in which field the opportunities would be more. The people who employed in I.T. & BPO fields are very small compared to our total population, may be less than 0.5%. So, we need not worry about 0.5%, but concentrate on 99.5%. It is not wise on your part to blame our leaders and planners saying that they are promoting only I.T. & BPO sectors. In fact the government is giving concessions to many export-oriented industries and services. It is creating Special Economic Zones for increasing exports. The govt. also offered Rs: 2,200/- crores concessions to Volkswagen for setting up a factory in A.P. The A.P. government also spent hundreds of crores for the development of sericulture. But what is the outcome in sericulture, we are still uncompetitive to China in the world. So, there is a lot of wastage of money. Instead if we had spent this amount in I.T. & BPO sectors, the outcome would have been more fruitful. We have natural advantage of English language abilities. This growth is natural. On the other hand if we try in some other sectors which is not competitive, then a lot of money would be wasted.

Posted by: Mr. sree krishna koppuravuri At: 14, Jun 2006 2:49:59 PM IST

Dear Maharshi, You said that Mr. Gartner predicted 70 to 80 per cent of IT jobs would be eliminated and/or totally reconfigured'as per the printed report(2001) you have. Mr. Gartner also predicted that by 2010 worldwide demand for technology developers -- a job category ranging from programmers people who maintain everything from mainframes to employee laptops -- is forecast to shrink by 30 percent.(Source: http://www.byz.org/~rbanks/movableType/webLog/trends/archives/2005_06.html) In 2002 Mr. Gartner estimated that the ITeS/BPO market will grow to $300 billion by 2004. In 2003 Mr. Gartner estimated that worldwide the BPO market would be $122 Billion. (http://www.bpoindia.org/knowledgeBase/) Gartner estimates that India's current 85 percent ownership of the BPO market share could dwindle to about 45 percent by 2007. He estimates that the worldwide offshore BPO market will grow to about $24 billion by 2007 of which India will earn about $13.8 billion.(Source: http://www.express-computer.com/20031222/coverstory01.shtml) That means our share of BPO income will increase from $2 billion in 2004 to $13.8 billion in 2007.Eventhough our share decrease from 85 percent to 45 percent in the world, the income would be about 7 times more. In future, this 45% would grow again because other countries can not compete with us. Our people would work even for less salaries, so definitely our share will again increase. So,we need not worry about it.

Posted by: Mr. sree krishna koppuravuri At: 14, Jun 2006 1:28:37 PM IST

Maharshi Garu, The boom in the IT jobs due to the Boom in the Electronics Industry is evident from the recruitment drive launched by Motorola and Texas Instruments. Those companies are doing extremely well and that itself is an indication that the IT job market is still growing. In addition we have consulting companie slike Infosys and TCS that are recruting people in hundreds on the projects related to electronics industry of Eurpoe and the US Every change in technology triggers new jobs and if the boom in the Elec. and the mobile industry continues like this .. there would definitley be a vast growth in the opportunities. About Nano .. yes it is hardware-driven, but who would actually simulate the results in Nano Tech? Who would drive their control systems? It is true a Robot can displace 10 humans .. but you need a team of 20 to develop and maintain such a robot even at a nano scale. Nano Tech is also widely used in the field of bio technology and they need simulation and imaging tools too ... and if the growth of Nano tech goes as per the plans .. the IT requirements for the companies would grow multifold and 5 years from now. Please ask your Nano Experts whether they can do wothout software programmers when they make embedded systems or chips using nanotech. Correct me if I am wrong, and if you are talking about India, there are too many pseudo-experts in nano but just veryyyyyy few of them have got the real knowledge.

Posted by: Malakpet Rowdy At: 12, Jun 2006 3:34:45 PM IST

Mr.Maharshi, I exactly quoted your own words from your own article where you predicted THE END to IT employment. And i am sorry to say you conviniently skipped to answer that. I don't know what else would make you realize that you have overblown the predictions in your article. *********************** This is gartner website and you don't want to believe that you have clear inflated the numbers in your comments?. http://www.gartner.com/it/products/podcasting/asset_141221_2575.jsp ***************************** I never said I don't believe in Gartner, all i said was there are always 2 sides to coin, and even gartner falls flat on their predictions. ******************** I merely did'nt critisized you , i even said how the technology would still be the prime source of employment, it is through INNOVATION.It is the key and it has been till date. You clearly ignored about that in your predictions. You made your predictions on just the current conditions and clearly ignored the future scenarios. Just read all my posts again. **********************************

Posted by: Mr. ravi talsani At: 9, Jun 2006 7:47:23 PM IST

Reply from Pragna Maharshi (to Malakpet Rowdy gaaru and Ravi Talsani gaaru) I'm sorry once again for the delay in replying to your comments. Malakpet Rowdy gaaru, I'm always open for friendly, healthy and constructive criticism. Hence, you can freely criticize my opinions. Your statement says: 'The advances in the TV technology didnt create many jobs in the Electronics Industry but, tell you what, they have created jobs in the IT field' My reply: It is true that electronic industry created jobs in IT. Even IT created jobs in electronic industry too. Every field is interlinked with each other. So, one field generates jobs in another field. So, the questions we need to ask are, (1) How many jobs has electronic industry (or for that matter any other industry) created in IT? (2) Have these jobs in IT created by electronic (or any other) field kept growing or declining? (3) Will they continue to grow in future too? Your another statement says: 'Totally Reconfigured .. there lies the catch ... it could mean that the nature of jobs might change but those jobs STILL EXIST. 99% of the journos predicted a doom by the year 2000' My reply: I wrote, 'Gartner predicted that 70 to 80 per cent of IT jobs would be eliminated and/or totally reconfigured'. This sentence means, certain per centage of the jobs would be eliminated and certain per centage would be totally reconfigured. That's what Gartner meant. There is hell a lot of difference between what journalists predict and what research experts (of one field) predict. We can't club the predictions of these two together and say, they are all rubbish. The world's top IT policy and decision-makers take their decisions, which are heavily influenced by reports of Gartner and other similar research firms. Gartner never predicted an IT doom either after Y2K or after 9/11. I don't want to sound like the spokesman for Gartner but we need to understand the difference. Anyway, I said in my earlier comment that my article is neither influenced by nor based on Gartner's predictions. Your statement says: 'Take, for instance .. the emeregence of Nano Technology .. if it goes as per the predictions, it is going to open up millions of jobs for the IT professionals .. so the jobs lost in mainframes would be more than compensated by the jobs generated by Nano Tech...' My reply: It would be really amazing if Nanotech can create millions of jobs for IT people. But as far as what I learned from Nanotech experts is that as Nanotech is primarily a hardware-driven field, the jobs it could create wouldn't be at a staggering rate. But you are saying that Nanotech would create millions of jobs in IT field alone. I am truly interested to know, how it's possible. Ravi Talsani gaaru, I'm very open for criticism but when it comes to your comments like 'asses', 'every Tom and Dick' are, I feel, derogatory and diverting the discussion from the actual topic. If you are truly interested in the discussion on my article and would like to prove that I'm wrong, do that with constructive arguments and not words like the above. I excused your words this time for the only reason that I'm truly interested in a constructive discussion and would like to learn some thing out of this. If you think in peace without anger on me, you can make positive discussion. Your statement says: 'I clearly see that you contradict yourself.' My reply: I'm not contradicting myself. Neither in my article nor in my comments, I never said that IT jobs will perish totally in the future. Your statement says: 'Even here you inflated the numbers and twisted the gartner prediction.' My reply: I don't have to inflate the numbers (of Gartner) because I got nothing against IT field. 70 to 80 per cent is the number that I read in Gartner's printed report. I read it in early 2001. Moreover, I said in my earlier comments that my article is not based on this report. Any way, you don't agree with Gartner's predictions. And you don't agree with my prediction too. So, let's not waste time on discussing on Gartner's or my predictions. You tell me and the others how IT field will continue to create employment to millions of people in India in the next few decades. Your statement says: 'Why future lets see the past and present...a guy who was chemical engineer at NTPC 20 years back is now senior business analyst in a IT firm.' My reply: It is true that many people entered into IT from other fields. And it is equally true that many IT professionals have been laid off from jobs too. That's not the point here. Will IT field continue to create employment to millions of Indians in the future? If yes, how? That's the topic of discussion here. Thanks Pragna Maharshi

Posted by: Mr. Maharshi Pragna At: 9, Jun 2006 6:57:59 PM IST

Dear Mr Pragna, You'd presented the future scenario crystal clear. It should be an eye-opener for not only our Leaders/Industrialists but, our countrywom)en too. Instead of patting on one's own back for generating glorified-highly-paid-clerks out of even Engineers, we should have a critical look at the goings on and immediately think and plan for alternate human-intensive sectors. Regards, M.V.V.Prasad Reddy,Jamnagar, Gujarat, 08/06/2006.

Posted by: Mr. V V PRASAD REDDY MAJJI At: 8, Jun 2006 1:58:51 PM IST

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