Comment and Discuss on TeluguPeople.com Articles

as a software engg i will completely agree with maharshi's article.any unfortunate incident in USA like countries may show tragedic effect on our indian IT and BPO field.so i suggest s/w engg to have alternate earning options apart from this IT earnings.Y BECOZ 'PREVENCTION IS BETTER THAN CURE'. ==========UMAMAHESWAR.G

Posted by: Mr. UMAMAHESWAR GUNIGANTI At: 4, Jun 2006 11:33:08 AM IST

(b)'Prathi technology rangaaniki oka THE END dasha vasthundhi (ante upadhi kalpana drushtitho).' 'EE drushtitho choosinappudu ee IT rangam peak stage lo vunnappude sharaveganga THE END dashaku cheruthundhi.'(/b) Mr.maharshi those were some of your comments from your artcile. And in your response you commented (b) 'Even in my article, I never said that employment in IT field will perish one day.' ''''Last but not least, predicting future is not considered as pessimism. If I say that IT field will die one day and there wouldn't be any jobs in IT field, then it is called pessimism.''''' (/b) I clearly see that you contradict yourself. Let us focus on Gartner now.. Gartner quotes (from their website) (b)'Gartner predicts the job market for IT specialists will shrink 40% by 2010. Infrastructure specialists and programmers will be hit especially hard, but this may be good news for outsourcing and consulting companies, as well as academic institutions.'(/b) Mr.maharshi quotes from his comments were (b)'Gartner Research (USA), the world's top most IT research organization, published its forecast on IT field. Their predictions reveal that by 2010, anywhere between 70 to 80 per cent of IT jobs would be eliminated and/or totally reconfigured.'(/b) Even here you inflated the numbers and twisted the gartner prediction. Mr.Maharshi please read all my posts, i was always complaining about those kind of negative terms you used in your article, i doubt even gartner group dares to use those terms. Talking about gartner predictions, its universal that how controversial some of their predictions are.Take for instance way back when Windows was just trying to make a foothold, gartner predicted 90% of the market being taken over by OS/2 !!! Gartner predicted huge growth in outsourcing sometime back and the same gartner suggested CIO's to go slow on outsourcing since its not reaping the benefits as expected. Gartner predicts million things on variuos inductries and some of them turn true, because even they know that they are mere predictions. I am not into predictions here, all i said all along my posts was please don't pass negativety with your predictions. We Indians usually predict things with a touch of karma siddhantham, we can't get away with that. Its sad that some of our Indian IT shops treat this feild as 'royyala vyapaaram'(Which ruled the roost sometime back).And are under the assumption that even the IT would tumble the sameway. Yes it might be true for their business but not the technology itself. My point was Technology is here to stay, you might be a mere programmer now after 20 years the same guy might be working in a firm which is producing consumer robotics. Why future lets see the past and present...a guy who was chemical engineer at NTPC 20 years back is now senior business analyst in a IT firm. So technology ni nammukunna vaadu yenaadu nashanam kaadu. (b) We who post comments here are also busy like you because we all work our asses off to meet our ends. But the reason i spend so much of time to post comments on your article is because i just coud'nt take the negative tone in your article. In these google days every Tom and dick can back their statements with facts and figures.Its no big deal. Even i dont blame you,i know 'The END vasthundhi' like predictions would make hot headlines than positive ones. (/b)

Posted by: Mr. ravi talsani At: 1, Jun 2006 8:32:03 PM IST

'Prathi technology rangaaniki oka THE END dasha vasthundhi (ante upadhi kalpana drushtitho).' 'EE drushtitho choosinappudu ee IT rangam peak stage lo vunnappude sharaveganga THE END dashaku cheruthundhi.' Mr.maharshi those were some of your comments from your artcile. And in your response you commented 'Even in my article, I never said that employment in IT field will perish one day.' ''''Last but not least, predicting future is not considered as pessimism. If I say that IT field will die one day and there wouldn't be any jobs in IT field, then it is called pessimism.''''' I clearly see that you contradict yourself. Let us focus on Gartner now.. Gartner quotes (from their website) 'Gartner predicts the job market for IT specialists will shrink 40% by 2010. Infrastructure specialists and programmers will be hit especially hard, but this may be good news for outsourcing and consulting companies, as well as academic institutions.' Mr.maharshi response comments were 'Gartner Research (USA), the world's top most IT research organization, published its forecast on IT field. Their predictions reveal that by 2010, anywhere between 70 to 80 per cent of IT jobs would be eliminated and/or totally reconfigured.' Even here you inflated the numbers and twisted the gartner prediction. Mr.Maharshi please read all my posts, i was always complaining about those kind of negative terms you used in your article, i doubt even gartner group dares to use those terms. Talking about gartner predictions, its universal that how controversial some of their predictions are.Take for instance way back when Windows was just trying to make a foothold, gartner predicted 90% of the market being taken over by OS/2 !!! Gartner predicted huge growth in outsourcing sometime back and the same gartner suggested CIO's to go slow on outsourcing since its not reaping the benefits as expected. Gartner predicts million things on variuos inductries and some of them turn true, because even they know that they are mere predictions. I am not into predictions here, all i said all along my posts was please don't pass negativety with your predictions. We Indians usually predict things with a touch of karma siddhantham, we can't get away with that. Its sad that some of our Indian IT shops treat this feild as 'royyala vyapaaram'(Which ruled the roost sometime back).And are under the assumption that even the IT would tumble the sameway. Yes it might be true for their business but not the technology itself. My point was Technology is here to stay, you might be a mere programmer now after 20 years the same guy might be working in a firm which is producing consumer robotics. Why future lets see the past and present...a guy who was chemical engineer at NTPC 20 years back is now senior business analyst in a IT firm. So technology ni nammukunna vaadu yenaadu nashanam kaadu. One last thing i know 'The END vasthundhi' like predictions would make hot headlines than positive ones.

Posted by: Mr. ravi talsani At: 1, Jun 2006 6:23:53 PM IST

My argument is like this. In the last two decades in electronic field, so many technologies have come up. Flat TVs, LCD screen TVs, rear-projection TVs, Plasma TVs and now High definition TVs. In future there will surely be some other technological changes in TV field. That is the technology aspect. But what about the employment aspect in TV field? Has the electronic field generated more and more jobs? The answer is NO ____________________________________________________ There you go Maharshiji, The advances in the TV technology didnt create many jobs in the Electronics Industry but, tell you what, they have created jobs in the IT field!

Posted by: Malakpet Rowdy At: 1, Jun 2006 6:04:56 PM IST

Gartner Research (USA), the world's top most IT research organization, published its forecast on IT field. Their predictions reveal that by 2010, anywhere between 70 to 80 per cent of IT jobs would be eliminated and/or totally reconfigured ___________________________________________________ This statement by Maharshiji is worth a second look .. 'Totally Reconfigured' .. there lies the catch ... it could mean that the nature of jobs might change but those jobs STILL EXIST. 99% of the journos predicted a doom by the year 2000 but the emergence of web based computing proved them wrong ... they predicted a doom after 9/11 but after a brief lull, the construction industry picked up and triggered the IT boom. I dont know how many would agree with me but I strongly feel that the IT boom is NOT dependent of the number of lines of code or the number of design patterns or even the number of automations tool .. BUT DEPENDENT ON THE EMERGENCE OF THE OTHER INDUSTRIES ... every non IT industry is now a days closely coupled with the IT initiatives. Take, for instance .. the emeregence of Nano Technology .. if it goes as per the predictions, it is going to open up millions of jobs for the IT professionals .. so the jobs lost in mainframes would be more than compensated by the jobs generated by Nano Tech... I dont mean to criticize the author but I wish he had considered the growth of the other industries before predicting the future of IT.

Posted by: Malakpet Rowdy At: 1, Jun 2006 5:48:24 PM IST

Hi Maharshi, I impressed a lot by this article , i am working for mastek . I found a similar one in my internal site a month back. Even anyone agrees with you or not, You are in a perfect direction. Regards Naresh M

Posted by: Mr. Naresh Muddakkagari At: 1, Jun 2006 12:50:19 PM IST

hi maharishiji, what ever u said in this article i would agree and i happened to think this since a long time but couldnt find the base or the real factor. i being a s/w guy wrkin in b'lr had never thought of the things that u have brought up here. really good one and as u said very few people agree with this. Regards, krishnamohan12@yahoo.com

Posted by: Mr. krishna mohan koripella At: 31, May 2006 8:43:04 PM IST

Reply from Pragna Maharshi to Ravi and Suresh: Suresh gaaru, If at all my reply to Ravi gaaru was in anyway provocative, I apologize for it. Frankly, provocation was not at all my intention. I just wrote it sportively and friendly. When we don't see the other person's body language, it is easier to misinterpret the intentions of the other person's written communication. Ravi gaaru, I'm sorry for the delay in responding to your comments. I'm neither escaping nor afraid of your criticism. I have been preoccupied so much with my works that I didn't even access Internet for all these days. Following employment trends is what I have been doing for over the last one and a half decade. It is the activity of my daily life. As part of this, I have been following IT since 1995. In 1996 itself, I predicted that in the future foreign companies would shift their IT projects to India. Back in 1993, when India just opened its economy for globalization, I predicted that in future India would not be able to take full benefit of global opportunities as our workforce doesn't possess the required Global Skills. On behalf of my organization, I even submitted a memorandum to the then Prime Minister's office. They couldn't understand what I was talking about. In 2005, Indian government realized this fact. I don't predict the employment trends based on my sixth sense (which I don't have, anyway). Behind any predictions made by me, there is huge research, experience, collective wisdom and lessons learned from the past by the society and that particular field. I deliberately avoided writing the statistics, data and figures in my article because I thought it would become too academic and look like a PhD thesis. Then, people would lose the interest in reading the article and most of the readers wouldn't understand the essence of the article. Gartner Research (USA), the world's top most IT research organization, published its forecast on IT field. Their predictions reveal that by 2010, anywhere between 70 to 80 per cent of IT jobs would be eliminated and/or totally reconfigured. If I had known the website link of this report, I would have mentioned here but unfortunately I have only the printed format of this report. My article is not based on this report though. Even before I read that report, I had had the same opinion that IT field would one day seize to create employment to lakhs and lakhs of people (like it is creating now). It happened with every other technological field. I totally agree with you that IT is part of our lives and software packages come and go and new softwares emerge. In fact, in my comments, I said it clearly that IT will be here for next thousand years too. Even in my article, I never said that employment in IT field will perish one day. In all your comments, you are talking about technology aspect. I absolutely have no contradictions with your argument about technology per se. I'm talking about the amount of employment IT can create in the future. Please understand this difference. It is foolish from my side if I say that there won't be any IT jobs in the future. In fact, that was not the message that I gave in my article. There WILL be IT jobs but surely there won't be jobs in lakhs and lakhs (as it is happening now in India). My argument is like this. In the last two decades in electronic field, so many technologies have come up. Flat TVs, LCD screen TVs, rear-projection TVs, Plasma TVs and now High definition TVs. In future there will surely be some other technological changes in TV field. That is the technology aspect. But what about the employment aspect in TV field? Has the electronic field generated more and more jobs? The answer is NO. Despite the technological changes and developments, the amount of jobs that electronic field created back in 1970s and 1980s, was extremely higher than what the electronic field is creating now. In fact, the difference is so much that you can't even compare it. Why is this decline in employment creation? The reason is automization and mechanization, among other reasons. Similarly, new software packages will continue to be developed or IT projects can be executed and managed by automated softwares with less and less IT manpower. People are always needed for developing new technologies, as you rightly said. But my contention is how many people are needed? Going by the technological developments in IT, not many people would be required. I tell you one example. In the past, for Data Migration projects (from legacy systems to other newer systems), many IT professionals were required dealing with COBOL and other file and data transfer programs. Five/six years ago, what took ten people to do the data migration, today, you can do it with one or two programmers using an automated tool developed with XML-and-Java languages. If not now, even after 100 years there will be a mind-blowing OS, which will replace Windows. I'm 100 p.c sure on this. But even if Windows is replaced by any other fabulous new OS, there wouldn't be massive creation of IT jobs because it will have been so much automized that very few IT professionals would suffice to implement it as compared to the Windows OS of 1995 or so. Even that new OS will have been developed by very few people using highly automized software. So, what I would like to say that I have no contradictions with your arguments on technology aspect. My contention is that in future IT jobs will keep decreasing for varied reasons as mentioned in my article. If you think this opinion of mine is incorrect, please tell me how IT jobs will keep increasing as per your opinion and I am glad to alter my opinion. I'm always open to learning and criticism. Going by your comment that Americans are optimistic despite losing jobs due to outsourcing, I can't stop appreciating their generosity and broad-mindedness. Because I'm no more in the USA, I don't know what their real opinion is. I assume you are in the USA. So, you know it better. But if I have to believe American newspapers such as NY Times and Washington Post, the American workforce is not optimistic about their future. Last but not least, predicting future is not considered as pessimism. If I say that IT field will die one day and there wouldn't be any jobs in IT field, then it is called pessimism. I never said this. At the end of my article, I even discussed as to what measures India can take to decrease the damage and perform better in IT field in the future. Is that called pessimism, when I wish how we can make it better? Thanks Pragna Maharshi

Posted by: Mr. Maharshi Pragna At: 31, May 2006 6:15:33 PM IST

Mr.Suresh, Namasthe Anna, naaku bayyam avuthundhi anna nee maatalaki. Even Mr.Gates or Mr.Ellison who seem to be dictating IT, when they pass any views and predictions expect and even get a ton of criticism. And you guys are treating Mr.maharshi as some prophecy or yogi.Way to go Mr.Suresh. You are talking about me verifying the credentials of Mr.Maharshi, why don't u read my comments in detail,understand and then pass advice here. First you should think out of the box mr.suresh, Gone are those days when a author gets away with whatever trash he comes out with. I feel posting comments for a article is a great thing whereas you see a problem in it. Did Mr.Maharshi or you have tried to comment on my contradictions ? NO. I clearly see the ROOT cause of the problem here, u guys are not prepared to take criticism. Which also leads me to think you guys are not prepared for any change, you guys love to be in your comfort zone. That attitude shows even in the views expressed by you and as well as Mr.Maharshi. I don't mince words when it comes to calling a spade a spade, It might sound harsh to some but as a author you should be prepared for it.And above all we have this wonderful media where you can contradict me instantly. I don't see that happening here. On the other hand you in a few words are just trying to pass free advice to all of us here. I clearly mentioned the problems i have in Mr.Maharshi's article and even expressed my views. I posted my comments here in detail even with examples and Mr. Maharshi says 'Give me constructive comments'. If my comments don't sound constructive to you mr.maharshi then could you take pains to explain me the same?

Posted by: Mr. ravi talsani At: 29, May 2006 5:01:22 PM IST

Hi folks, I want to strongly support the stand of ravi talasani on this topic. IT is one leaf of Techonlogy tree. If I have to beleve this article I have to believe this one ' If you do fishing more in a sea the sooner you may not see any fish.' If this article is true, americans could have closed the shop of innovating things long back. And slept scaring like us. No wonder we think like this as We are from a world ,where there is wind strom means we will pray GOD . We never think to get scientific data and other alternatives of minimising loss. Americans must have been happy with their mainframe technology but in reality its not true. They keep always thinking better better .I feel there is no cut off limit to define this . New technologies keep forcing to change the way of business execution. It has to ..!!It will. Coming to maharshijis comment on COMPUTERIZATION means eliminating human element in day to day activities. In a narrow angle this appears to be true. Try to focus once from a corporate point of view, Is their real goal is to eleminate human work ??or Is it better work and more profit??. In simple terms I feel computerization as repeating the same good work for mass production as human has limitation to do so. As in Maharshijis classical example of oracle and java programs can be developed by end user there is a missing conclusion. This the end of the programming jobs .Then whats the new begining ?? there should be right ??Could be business product development or something else.I am sure there will be something else in the same lines we need to change our skill set or adapt the new change. But strongly say BIG NO to the feel of there is an END to programming. But I really apprecaite maharshjis focus on diversication of other industry development with respect to hyd development. Last thing is what is the value for land ? it is based on the demand supply . The price of any dam asset in this world depends on how much demand in future the asset has ?? based on the supply it will be diluted. By the time as maharshi said 'Programming job s end' people are rich enough to hold the asset. any how thanks for reading me .

Posted by: Mr. rajasekhar At: 28, May 2006 2:08:17 AM IST

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